Optimistic Futures

In his book "Learned Optimism", Marin Seligman describes how he and Harold Zullov, a graduate student, attempted to predict the outcome of the 1988 Presidential elections. They did this by analysing the stump speeches of, first of all, the nominees. They correctly predicted that Michael Dukakis and George Bush would win their respective party nominations, even though they were both second favourites to Gary Hart and Robert Dole.

Their method was to break down the speech and analyse it for pessimism - the way the candidates explained bad events. Pessimists tend to use permanent and pervasive explanations, with no solutions - signalling hopelessness, whereas an optimist will explain an adverse event as being temporary and specific, and offer answers. This explanatory style affects voters - as people are drawn to the "inspirational" candidate and move away from the depressed-sounding one.

Initally in 1988, they predicted that Dukakis would win , by analysing his acceptance speech, but as the campaign progressed, they realised that the speech wasn't the real Dukakis. When they looked at the televised, head to head debates, Dukakis was slipped back. They predicted a Bush victory by 9.2% - Dukakis was beaten by 8.2% in the end.

I don't know if the same exercise has been carried out during this campaign, but just reflecting on Obama's performance in the televised debates, compared to McCain, and on his much-admired oratorial style, Obama has to be favourite by a bigger margin than the polls are suggesting.

McCain's vision of the future is inevitably associated in voter's minds with the Bush/Republican past. He's 72 - he embodies the past, and even if he does win, with his previous health problems, it would be a victory to see out a full term in office. He struggles to articulate any vision - and instead has focussed on his past record. This was Gordon Brown's mantra as well. Personally it just makes me feel depressed - leadership has to be about the present and the future. Sure, you value the past, but the rear view mirror is not a navigational aid.

Obama is selling his version of an alternative and longer term future. His whole campaign is based on change, that the future is not going to be more of the same. It is optimistic, despite the gloomy economic background, and that's what people want now. It turns out that's what they've always wanted.